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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analys🐻ed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In 😼the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is deter𓆏mined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in♏ the Bundesliga have about the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but n𝐆o evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goal♉s are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all win𝓡s are based upon a one-goal-🌜margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implicatio💧n 75%💎 of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of ꩲthe 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure al✃ready amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher re🅘sults!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected𓃲 amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities𒀰 are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extrem♕ely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal differenꦺce increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level ofﷺ a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an averag✅e opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunit🉐ies dispꦗlay the performances of teams.
A football☂ match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offense and defense are cor🧔related.
Without effects of coincidence, th𒀰e difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the performance leve🔜l.
The goal difference is determined by 🦄effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place dur𓆉ing the summer break and only rare
There are no positive serieꦅs. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As A🌄ndi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conve🅠rsion of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the🥂 prediction of goals.
The performa♔nce of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of go🦄alscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half oꦅf the season..
No. In fact only in half🅷 of the cases the best team wins and ꦬbecomes German champion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect♈ is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is enough for today, we will l𝓰et you know another rime.